2003 Annual Pawtuckaway Lake
Ice-Out Date Guessing Contest

Ice-Out News Archive

Sunday, April 6, 2003

Spring Ice-In Contest
Posted by George Voltz

I though we named this contest appropriately, but it is beginning to look like we should have called it the Spring Ice-In Contest. The percentage that the lake is ice free has been dropping every day for the last few days. The coves that were Ice Free are now covered with a coating of ice. We are looking at some temperatures in the High 50s toward the end of the week, this should feel like the Spring we have been waiting for.

Saturday, April 5, 2003

Killington Snow
Posted by George Voltz

Well it looks like another winter day on Pawtuckaway. The ice has been freezing again along with a new 4 plus inch snow cover. I guess it could have been worse, this picture was taken yesterday in Killington, VT it appears they have it worse then we do. The forecast for Sunday isn't all that bad, highs in the mid 40s and NO snow predicted.

Friday, April 4, 2003

In Denial
Posted by Jack Hodgson

Good Morning. It's a beautiful day here at the lake. The sun is shining down on the flowers that are starting to bloom as the lake steadily rises. Temps are forecast to be in the high 60s today, and swimming is a real possibility. Isn't Spring wonderful?

...looked like Colorado
Posted by George Voltz

Getting up this morning and looking out the window kind of looked like the picture Jack posted yesterday from Colorado. Fortunately we aren't getting the seven feet that parts around Denver got last week. This new snow cover has gone and covered all the water which got it's normal nightly skim of ice with snow now. It now looks like we have dropped from the 20% ice-free that we had on Wednesday to maybe 5% ice-free. And the weather forecast is calling for an additional 4 inches tonight.

Thursday, April 3, 2003

Back on March 22 we showed the picture on the left, taken by Ice-Out Juror Randy Hale. Yesterday he sent along an updated view. (Click on either image for a larger view.)

It Could Be Worse

Last week they had SEVEN feet of snow near Denver Colorado. (Click on image for larger view.)

Wednesday, April 2, 2003

Ice-Out Reports Getting Closer
Posted by Jack Hodgson

A lake in Sturbridge Mass reported Ice-Out a few days ago. Check out this website for that report and others.

Note: When you get to that page click the "Press Here" button to see the most recent Ice-Out reports.

April or November?
Posted by George Voltz

From watching the lake level dropping and the water crusting over every night with ice, I been having a hard time trying to determine the time of year. Is it November or is it April? The lake appears to have dropped at least another 2 inches since Jack posted his chart yesterday. But the good news is that even though the water freezes almost every night, we are still seeing more and more of the winter ice going away everyday.

Tuesday, April 1, 2003

It's depressing.
Posted by Jack Hodgson

Here's the latest version of my lake level chart. Note the depressing decline. (Click on image for larger version.)

16 inches OVER the highest board
Posted by Tom Duffy

The coves are iced out. Fundy is pretty clear. And the water on Saturday was about 16 inches OVER the highest board in the dam. It's like when they let it out!

It's not out yet!
Posted by Randy Hale

It was cold last night. The "open" water around the edges is skinned over. But we'll see what happens later in the day. The main area is still white. It does, however look a lot thinner than it did when I left. It's not out yet!

Monday, March 31, 2003

2:31 PM -- The opening to Neals Cove is ice-free for the first time this season. I can now paddle across the the Park shoreline.

11 am -- Spring Watchers, like myself, are still recovering from the double-whammy of: the lake level dropping, and the snowfall. But we'll recover. I guess.

The Jury has bumped up the ice-free number by a couple of points, so it's not all bad.

Starting tomorrow there is a registered Guess for every day all month. Check back often to see who picked what day.

If it's any consolation, I was visiting my brother in Montpelior Vermont over the weekend, where their arrival of spring was interupted by a 4-5 inch snowfall on Sunday.

As I'm writing this at around 11am, the temp is about to rise above freezing, so maybe we'll get some melting before the day is out.

Saturday, March 29, 2003

Loon Sighting!
Posted by George Voltz

I haven't been posting much for the last couple days, my time has been tied up working on a project for the Nottingham 8th Grade Class.

Since I last posted we have seen about 6% of the ice go away. With the fog cover on the lake today and possibilities of occasional rain, watch for more open space to appear in the ice. We have had three ducks swimming back and forth between Neals Cove and Mountain Brook Cove for the past five days, now this morning my wife spotted a couple of Loons swimming by our cove.

The guesses have started flipping over as the days go by without a winner, be sure to check back to the Ice-Out page daily to watch for your name to appear or just to see who was guessing what dates. Also since the Ice is starting to go quickly you don't want to miss the day that the 90% get's posted and the winner is announced.

Friday, March 28, 2003

South channel is open.
Posted by Tom Duffy

There are water holes where the outcrop rocks used to be. The small coves like mine are are about 50%, but the body is still covered. South channel is open.

New ice is surprisingly thick.
Posted by Jack Hodgson

I was just out in the cano-yak (a canoe being propelled with a kayak paddle... looks goofy, but works great). And the new ice that formed over night is much thicker than past nights. Today there are large patches that are 1/4 inch thick, and a few spots as thick as 1/2 inch. <frown>

By the way, yesterday was the first registered Guess. As the days pass we'll be "flipping over the cards" and revealing who guessed each day. Check back often.

Thursday, March 27, 2003

Lots of Water
Posted by Jack Hodgson

This picture of the Dolloff Dam gateway, taken by me yesterday, shows how much water is flowing out of the lake. Look closely and you'll see that 12 - 18 inches of water is flowing over the top layer of boards. It just goes to show how much water is flowing INTO the lake that it's still rising (slowly) with this much outflow.(Click image for larger view.)

...getting wider
Posted by Randy Hale

The border is getting wider. A lot of it is slushy, not clear water. But the clear water areas are getting a little larger. The rain caused some of the snowmobile tracks on the snow on the ice to darken a little, but the main ice area is still pretty clean white.

Wednesday, March 26, 2003

Here is a picture taken yesterday, of the shallow channel between Mt. Brook and Neals Coves. You can see that, with the exception if some patches of floating slush, the channel is ice-free. Look close and see one of the ducks that have recently returned to the channel. (Click image for larger view.)

Icebergs!
Posted by George Voltz

Woke up this morning to find Icebergs in my ice free cove. That is a good sign, it means that the ice is starting is crystallize with the melting and breaking off and floating away. This will cause the ice to start breaking up and will melt much quicker. The edges have been getting wider and wider.

Tuesday, March 25, 2003

Ice Fishermen!
Posted by Randy Hale

There were at least 8 or 10 fishermen out on the ice Monday. I nailed one of them as he was leaving. He said that the blue ice was at least 12" thick with 6" of the dense white former snow on top. But the edges are now mostly unwalkable because the water has risen and is now leaving water around it.

That the water has risen is verified by a very large flow in the water from Dolloff where it crosses rt. 156. The fisherman thought they had put in some boards, but I doubt it, judging by the water flow. I didn't drive up to the dam to look.

One of our neighbors has a vertical wall they built on the shore. You can get onto the ice there. But anywhere there is a gradual slope it is either open water or soft slush which cannot support any weight. It is going fast! That open/soft band is between 10 and 20 feet wide.

Time to launch a boat.
Posted by George Voltz

The water rim around the lake has almost made it the entire perimeter of the lake. We still have a few areas that the ice still touches the shore. With the fog and warmer weather the ice is starting to disappear much quicker now. Much of the disappearing we do not see, it is happening on the ice it self. The end of last week the ice on the Pawtuckaway Basin was over 2 feet thick, now yesterday it is only about a foot thick according to a fisherman that Randy talked to. We got at least one area that is 100% Ice Free, my cove had no ice this morning and is completely water now. Time to launch a boat.

Monday, March 24, 2003

Busy, busy.
Posted by Jack Hodgson

I haven't posted much in the past few days. It's mostly because I've been out playing in the mud.

My brother, Scott, and I launched boats today for the first time this year. He in his kayak and I in my aluminum rowboat. We went paddling around the edges of the ice along the shoreline. We also had alot of fun breaking up the ice/slush in the channel in front of our home. Good thing neither one of us have entered a Guess, so there's no conflict of interest.

...an enormous amount of water
Posted by George Voltz

We saw some great melting taking place the past few days. With highs predicted in the 50's all week and low's only in the 30's, we should see a good meltdown of the ice by weeks end. The brooks and streams that feed the lake are currently bringing in an enormous amount of water, this new and warmer water has melted a lot of the ice around the brooks. The lake appears to have come up another 5-6 inches since yesterday.

Saturday, March 22, 2003

Jury member Randy Hale took this pic this morning of the North Lake from the Seaman's Point area, looking north towards Fundy. (Click on the image for a larger version.)

Even I'm getting a little bored by hearing me rave about the sudden increase in lake level. Sorry, here's more.

The lake rose 5 inches in the past 24 hours. Here's a chart of the lake measurements I've been making. Note the dramatic increase over the past few days. (Click on the image for a larger version.)

Friday, March 21, 2003

It's Started! Today the Jury declared the the ice has started to recede. For the first time this spring they've declared that there is new open water on the lake.

It's becoming old news for me to announce that the water has risen more than ever. But yesterday's rise of 1.5 inches is overshadowed by today's rise of 3 inches! Much of that is probably the result of the rain we had last night. But the forecast is for more rain over the next few days, so get ready.

Me? Excited? Nah.

First Day of Spring
Posted by George Voltz

Today is the First Day of Spring. After all the rain that we received last night we should start seeing the lake really rise. Between yesterday and last night we received .91 inches of rain. Someone had told me years ago that one inch of rainfall can raise the height of Pawtuckaway by several feet with all the runoff coming in from the Pawtuckaway Watershed. Now the rate that the lake rises is in the hands of the Water Resource board (the controllers of the boards in both dams). If they choose not to put boards in then all the runoff goes over the existing boards and flows out to ocean.

Thursday, March 20, 2003

5:25 pm -- We've been notified by our website hosting service that they'll be doing some maintenance on the computers tomorrow, Friday afternoon, from around 6:00 to 6:30 PM. This site may be unavailable during that time. Hopefully Ice-Out won't happen during that time.

12 noon -- Here's a pic of a section of exposed "shoreline" at the entrance to Mt. Brook Cove. You'll see how the ice, where it's not covered by snow, is definitely starting to clear. Watch for the Jury to update the percentage soon. (Click on the image to see a larger version.)

9 am -- Good Morning. As George mentions below, the lake level took another big jump yesterday. It rose 1.5 inches in the past 24 hrs. That is the largest one-day rise that I've seen since I started measuring back in February.

Much of the current lake rise, and ice melt, is being hidden by the snow cover. The forecast rain for today, tomorrow, and/or sunday, could do alot to remove that cover and give us a real visible sign of spring.

By the way, a few more guesses came in yesterday. One of them is quite remarkable.

Official Ice-Out Jury
Posted by George Voltz

The Jury for the 2003 Pawtuckaway Ice-Out has been formed. The Jury and the area of the lake that they will be monitoring is as follows:

• Tom Duffy
  Jampsa Trail (Dolloff Side)
• Randy Hale
  Seamans Point (Pawtuckaway (North) Side)
• George Voltz
  Lakeview Dr (Mountain Brook & Neals Coves)

The lake appears to have risen even more since yesterday, although all the water that we had yesterday was again crusted over with a thin crust of ice. Over the past 3 days the temperatures have been dropping again, yesterday we had a high of 37.6, the day before the high was 47, day before that the high was 59. Over the next few days the melting will again start to pick back up, since the the forecast for Friday and Saturday are highs in the 50's and occasional rain.

Wednesday, March 19, 2003

Big day yesterday. We received 4, oops, no, 5 new Guesses. There are now only 2 un-Guessed days in April.

Two of the new Guesses are for dates in March! I like that kind of optimism!

It's been a hobby of mine last fall and this "spring", to keep daily records of the rise and fall of the lake level. The lake rose almost 2 inches in the past two days. The largest 2-day rise of the season. I suspect that they've added some boards into the dams.

Although the Jury has not officially reported it, I am seeing an inch or two of "open water" around the edges of the ice in a few places. I'll reiterate what George said below, that the ice may very well be getting unsafe to venture out onto. Along the shore the ice is very soft, almost slushy in places. I was told yesterday that ice often melts from the bottom up, so it might appear OK from above but be ready to give away.

Let's be careful out there. That's not how we want to see Pawtuckaway in the news.

Ice becoming unsafe?
Posted by George Voltz

We saw a great deal of melting yesterday again with a high of 47.7F. The lake has risen more over the last few days of all this spring like temperatures, although the ice still appears to be fairly thick, since I saw an ATV go by the house yesterday afternoon running through 2-3 inches of water covering the ice. Then again last night around 9 PM, I saw a snowmobile out on the ice. I would not recommend to anyone to venture out onto the ice anymore, it might appear safe, but it is the end of March.

Tuesday, March 18, 2003

Time Running Out

Just a reminder that the deadline to submit an Ice-Out Guess is Mar 21, just a few days from now. There are a few April days left, and some people are thinking that Ice-Out may be late this year, so those May dates may be valuable.

Great day of melting
Posted by George Voltz

After another great day of melting, with a high of 59F at the Voltz's house yesterday. If we continue to see temps in the 50s, the ice will start going away very quickly. Just after yesterday, I now have some water in my cove.

Monday, March 17, 2003

"...nice and shiny..."
Posted by George Voltz

We saw some great melting taking place yesterday, the surface of a good part of the lake was nice and shiny from a coating of water. Over the next few days with the weather forecasts of the temperatures being in the 50s we should start seeing some water forming around the edges.

Sunday, March 16, 2003

My sister says she's putting out the lawn furnture.

Today is shaping up to be the beginning of a series of melting days. According to weather.com it will get into the hi 40s and 50s every day now for the next week and a half. Five of the next ten nights are forecast to be above freezing, and no night goes below 20 during that time.

Let the melting begin!

Saturday, March 15, 2003

Ice Still Thick
Posted by George Voltz

The Jury has no changes in the ICE OUT for March 15th.

Although the ice has become even whiter yet another time with more fresh snow cover from last night.

Someone told me yesterday that the ice is still 2-1/2 to 3 feet thick, that is a lot of ice for this time of the year. Since we heard snowmobiles go by the house around 10 last night on the ice, it has got to be fairly thick still.

Watch it start melting away over the next few days, with temperatures in the mid 50's.

Great Lakes Freeze

We're not the only ones with alot of ice this winter. Here's a satellite photo of the great lakes. It show Lakes Superior, Huron and Erie which are 100% iced-over for the first winter in over a decade. Here's a blurb about this on Yahoo!.

Friday, March 14, 2003

No Change
Posted by George Voltz

No changes in the ICE OUT for March 14th. The ice has become white again with a fresh snow cover from yesterday afternoon. The forecast for the next few days should bring on some melting.

Saturday Partly sunny. Highs 35 to 40.
Sunday Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Monday A chance of showers during the day...otherwise becoming mostly clear. Highs in the lower 50s.

Thursday, March 13, 2003

The Jury reports no change since yesterday.

While we're waiting for things to get melting, here's a little bit about Ice-Out at Winnipesaukee. They have a different way of defining "ice-out" but they've been doing their contest for a long time. Nearly as long as us here at Pawtuckaway... well, a little longer. Click here for more...

Wednesday, March 12, 2003

From the Ice-Out Jury:

The Jury has no changes in the ICE OUT for March 12th. All we see is just a little water over the Frozen Ice from March 11th.

The newest official member of the ICE OUT Jury is Tom Duffy.

George Voltz

I'm learning that people have some very sophisticated methods for predicting the date of Ice-Out. One person said they were choosing Earth Day, and another said, Buddha's Birthday. My favorite: "Two weeks after Jon White's first swim!".

Monday, March 10, 2003

Well, the good melting we had going there has stalled, with the arrival of more sub-freezing weather. It's anybody's guess what that will do to the Ice-Out date.

We've gotten a good response to the start of the Ice-Out Guessing Contest. Many guesses have arrive already. After a few more come in I'll start listing the names of guessers on this page.

One admin note: When you submit a guess, you will receive an email confirmation of your guess. If you don't get that confirmation give me a holler.